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Smartphone sales growth about to slow dramatically, warns IDC

Tuesday, 2 December 2014 | By Andrew Sadauskas

The growth rate for smartphones is set to slow dramatically over the coming years, both in terms of volume and revenue, according to a forecast released this week by IDC.

 

The figures estimate a total of 1.288 billion smartphones will ship for the full year of 2014, with 82.3% (1.06 billion) Android smartphones, 13.8% (178 million) iPhones, 35 million Windows Phones, and 14 million others (including Firefox OS and BlackBerry).

 

The figures for 2014 represent a massive 26.3% increase over 2013, however, this growth rate is projected to slow dramatically over the coming years.

 

IDC’s figures anticipate shipments in 2018 will reach a total of 1.9 billion units in 2018, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2014 to 2018 of just 9%.

 

In 2018, IDC predicts 1.498 billion Android devices will ship globally, a CAGR of 9%. Apple shipments are predicted to grow at 7.8% per annum to 240 million units and Windows Phone will boom 31.4% per year to 105 million units. Other platforms will grow 20.4% per year to 30 million units.

 

The average outright selling price (ASP) of smartphones is expected to drop from $US297 worldwide in 2014 to $US241 in 2018, with the biggest drop in emerging markets, with ASPs in India set to crash from $US135 in 2014 to $US102 by 2018.

 

“While premium phones aren't going anywhere, we are seeing increasingly better specs in more affordable smartphones. Consumers no longer have to go with a top-of-the-line handset to guarantee decent hardware quality,” IDC senior research manager Melissa Chau said.

 

Shipment (M units)

2014*

2014* Market Share

2018*

2018* Market Share

2014-2018 CAGR

Android

1,060

82.3%

1,498

80.0%

9.0%

iOS

178

13.8%

240

12.8%

7.8%

Windows Phone

35

2.7%

105

5.6%

31.4%

Other OS

14

1.1%

30

1.6%

20.4%

Total

1,288

100.0%

1,873

100.0%

9.8%

Value (US$M)

Android

255,102

66.6%

275,248

60.9%

1.9%

iOS

116,540

30.4%

152,626

33.8%

7.0%

Windows Phone

7,782

2.0%

19,033

4.2%

25.1%

Other OS

3,480

0.9%

4,862

1.1%

8.7%

Total

382,904

100.0%

451,769

100.0%

4.2%

 

This story originally appeared on SmartCompany.