{"id":38734,"date":"2023-10-20T14:58:37","date_gmt":"2023-10-20T14:58:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/startupsmart.test\/2023\/10\/20\/what-will-the-outcome-of-2016-us-election-mean-for-the-australian-business-community-startupsmart\/"},"modified":"2023-10-20T14:58:37","modified_gmt":"2023-10-20T14:58:37","slug":"what-will-the-outcome-of-2016-us-election-mean-for-the-australian-business-community-startupsmart","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/uncategorized\/what-will-the-outcome-of-2016-us-election-mean-for-the-australian-business-community-startupsmart\/","title":{"rendered":"What will the outcome of 2016 US election mean for the Australian business community? – StartupSmart"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Donald
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump debate during the third presidential debate on October 19. Source: Mark Ralston\/Pool via AP<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

It\u2019s the week comedians and economists have been waiting for, and if there\u2019s one thing the Australian business community needs to worry about in the lead up to the US election, it\u2019s the list of unknowns on the table.<\/p>\n

Analysts are bracing for market jolts whichever way the vote goes on Tuesday \u2013 meaning Australian and global markets are in for a ride no matter what. If Donald Trump wins the race, the consensus seems to be that the local share market will face unhappy days because what we do know about Trump\u2019s trade policies would not bode well for our trade-focused stocks.<\/p>\n

\u201cA Trump victory to the extent that it leads to falls in investment markets and worries about a global trade war may also increase the chance of another RBA rate cut in Australia,\u201d AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said in a report on the stock market fallout.<\/p>\n

\u201cBeyond the initial reaction, share markets could then settle down,\u201d Oliver adds.<\/p>\n

Trade and uncertainty<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u201cTo be blunt, it\u2019s unclear what Trump\u2019s policies are going to be,\u201d says Dun and Bradstreet economic adviser Stephen Koukoulas.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a lot of rhetorical flourishes about trade barriers, but that\u2019s the risk \u2013 it\u2019s more that we don\u2019t know. He\u2019s said many different things over the past few months.\u201d<\/p>\n

Head of treasury at OXF, Will Shepherd, agrees. \u201cCertainly there\u2019s the element of the unknown, and it\u2019s the unpredictability of it,\u201d he told SmartCompany<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main concern is a very close race \u2013 it could be a case of a lot of legal battles. If it\u2019s a case of 271 electoral colleges to 268, it will take a while.\u201d<\/p>\n

Republican nominee Trump has engaged in rhetoric throughout the campaign about the lack of integrity in the US political system, and there are concerns about the impact of legal challenges on a close election result, which could see a delay in seeing a final outcome, and any policy measures released, for months after the polls close.<\/p>\n

A number of analysts have a Hillary Clinton victory pegged as \u201cmore of the same\u201d in terms of Australia\u2019s relationship with the United States, the response of local markets and the idea that her trade policies would have less of an impact on Australian trade flows.<\/p>\n

However, a clean sweep by the Democractic nominee wouldn\u2019t necessarily calm markets, with several analysts suggesting a Democratic presidency with the Republicans retaining control of the House of Representatives would be better for global market stability.<\/p>\n

\u201cSince 1927 US total share returns have been strongest, at an average 16.7% per annum, when there has been a Democrat president and Republican control of the House, the Senate or both,\u201d Shane Oliver says.<\/p>\n

Over the course of the election campaign, there\u2019s also been division in the ranks of global economists over who is best placed to ensure global stability and growth. As CommSec pointed out in a note last week, \u201cin September, 300 economists published an open letter denouncing the policies of Hillary Clinton. In early November, 400 economists published an open letter denouncing the economic policies of Donald Trump. So clearly economists can\u2019t agree which candidate has best policy\u201d.<\/p>\n

Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive James Pearson says the opposition by both candidates to the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement is disappointing for the local business community.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe know the TPP is not perfect but it opens up new trade and investment opportunities and reinforces US economic engagement with the Asia Pacific region that is vital to Australia\u2019s prosperity,\u201d Pearson says.<\/p>\n

Prepare for confidence knocks<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Analysts are preparing for ongoing knocks to business confidence in the belief that the race might go well beyond November, with the main concerns for the local market being the potential effects of Trump\u2019s protectionist policies, which still haven\u2019t really been fleshed out.<\/p>\n

Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakosben said on video this week the world should also be considering the \u201csocial economic impact\u201d of the vote, with more than half of the US population existing paycheque to paycheque, and how anxieties around social position have played into the entire campaign.<\/p>\n

However, Australian politicians have been keen to highlight that the Australian-US relations are bigger than the presidency, and economists say we should be prepared to advocate for Australian business interests no matter what.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no point in saying, \u201cwhat a strange and erratic person\u201d Donald Trump is,\u201d says Koukoulas.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve heard it from [Foreign Minister] Julie Bishop, and she\u2019s been very diplomatic and aware. Love them or hate them, we\u2019ve got to be careful, and we can continue to push for Australia\u2019s interests here.<\/p>\n

This article was first published by<\/em> SmartCompany<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Follow StartupSmart on<\/em>\u00a0Facebook<\/a>,<\/em>\u00a0Twitter<\/a>,\u00a0LinkedIn<\/a>\u00a0and iTunes<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump debate during the third presidential debate on October 19.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61546,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38734"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38734\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.startupsmart.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}